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Kiisto vs KPV-j — Suomen Cup 2018

Kiisto
Kiisto
FT
2 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
KPV-j
KPV-j
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundLemonsoft Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kiisto9%
×Draw12%
KPV-j78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiisto
1.19
KPV-j
3.47

KPV-j creates 192% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kiisto
0.60
KPV-j
3.15

allows per match

Kiisto
3.80
KPV-j
1.77

finishing

Kiisto+0.00on par
KPV-j+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiisto ↓

KPV-j →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Kiisto or draw
22%
Kiisto or KPV-j
88%
Draw or KPV-j
91%

Winning margin

Kiisto wins by 2+
3%
KPV-j wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Kiisto 1+ goals
70%
Kiisto 2+ goals
33%
Kiisto 3+ goals
12%
KPV-j 1+ goals
97%
KPV-j 2+ goals
85%
KPV-j 3+ goals
65%

Draw no bet

Kiisto (draw refunded)
11%
KPV-j (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiisto at home — creates 0.60, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

KPV-j away — creates 3.15, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiisto attack 0.60 + KPV-j defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.19

KPV-j attack 3.15 + Kiisto defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kiisto scores more
9%
level
12%
KPV-j scores more
78%

KPV-j at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "KPV-j will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kiisto 2 – 5 KPV-j

KPV-j beat Kiisto 5-2 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Lemonsoft Stadion in Vaasa.