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Kifisia vs PAOK — Super League 1 2018

Kifisia
Kifisia
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
PAOK
PAOK
12/21/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 15Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kifisia26%
×Draw24%
PAOK49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kifisia
1.15
PAOK
1.66

PAOK creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 137 away

creates per match

Kifisia
1.26
PAOK
1.72

allows per match

Kifisia
1.59
PAOK
1.03

finishing

Kifisia+0.00on par
PAOK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kifisia ↓

PAOK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kifisia or draw
51%
Kifisia or PAOK
76%
Draw or PAOK
74%

Winning margin

Kifisia wins by 2+
10%
PAOK wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Kifisia 1+ goals
68%
Kifisia 2+ goals
32%
Kifisia 3+ goals
11%
PAOK 1+ goals
81%
PAOK 2+ goals
49%
PAOK 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kifisia (draw refunded)
35%
PAOK (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kifisia at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

PAOK away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.03 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kifisia attack 1.26 + PAOK defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.15

PAOK attack 1.72 + Kifisia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kifisia scores more
26%
level
24%
PAOK scores more
49%

PAOK at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "PAOK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Kifisia 0–6 PAOK

PAOK beat Kifisia 6-0 in Super League 1 on December 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos in Athens.