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Kifisia vs AEK Athens FC — Super League 1 2018

Kifisia
Kifisia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AEK Athens FC
AEK Athens FC
11/4/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 10Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kifisia28%
×Draw25%
AEK Athens FC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kifisia
1.13
AEK Athens FC
1.56

AEK Athens FC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 137 away

creates per match

Kifisia
1.26
AEK Athens FC
1.53

allows per match

Kifisia
1.59
AEK Athens FC
1.00

finishing

Kifisia+0.00on par
AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kifisia ↓

AEK Athens FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kifisia or draw
53%
Kifisia or AEK Athens FC
75%
Draw or AEK Athens FC
72%

Winning margin

Kifisia wins by 2+
11%
AEK Athens FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kifisia 1+ goals
68%
Kifisia 2+ goals
31%
Kifisia 3+ goals
11%
AEK Athens FC 1+ goals
79%
AEK Athens FC 2+ goals
46%
AEK Athens FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kifisia (draw refunded)
37%
AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kifisia at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 34 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kifisia attack 1.26 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 + Kifisia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kifisia scores more
28%
level
25%
AEK Athens FC scores more
47%

AEK Athens FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Kifisia 1–1 AEK Athens FC

Kifisia and AEK Athens FC drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Kaisarianis Michalis Kritikopoulos in Athens.