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Kiffen vs PeKa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

Kiffen
Kiffen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
PeKa
PeKa
5/21/2022Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 4Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kiffen60%
×Draw20%
PeKa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiffen
2.29
PeKa
1.28

Kiffen creates 79% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 22 away

creates per match

Kiffen
1.59
PeKa
1.27

allows per match

Kiffen
1.29
PeKa
3.00

finishing

Kiffen+0.00on par
PeKa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen ↓

PeKa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kiffen or draw
79%
Kiffen or PeKa
80%
Draw or PeKa
40%

Winning margin

Kiffen wins by 2+
38%
PeKa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kiffen 1+ goals
90%
Kiffen 2+ goals
66%
Kiffen 3+ goals
40%
PeKa 1+ goals
72%
PeKa 2+ goals
37%
PeKa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kiffen (draw refunded)
74%
PeKa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

PeKa away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.00 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen attack 1.59 + PeKa defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

PeKa attack 1.27 + Kiffen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kiffen scores more
60%
level
20%
PeKa scores more
21%

Kiffen at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kiffen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kiffen 1 – 1 PeKa

Kiffen and PeKa drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.