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Kiffen vs KaaPo — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Kiffen
Kiffen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KaaPo
KaaPo
6/11/2018Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 7Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kiffen41%
×Draw24%
KaaPo34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiffen
1.60
KaaPo
1.44

Kiffen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kiffen
1.30
KaaPo
1.57

allows per match

Kiffen
1.30
KaaPo
1.91

finishing

Kiffen+0.00on par
KaaPo+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen ↓

KaaPo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kiffen or draw
66%
Kiffen or KaaPo
76%
Draw or KaaPo
59%

Winning margin

Kiffen wins by 2+
21%
KaaPo wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kiffen 1+ goals
80%
Kiffen 2+ goals
47%
Kiffen 3+ goals
22%
KaaPo 1+ goals
76%
KaaPo 2+ goals
42%
KaaPo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kiffen (draw refunded)
55%
KaaPo (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

KaaPo away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.91 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen attack 1.30 + KaaPo defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.60

KaaPo attack 1.57 + Kiffen defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kiffen scores more
41%
level
24%
KaaPo scores more
34%

Kiffen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kiffen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kiffen vs KaaPo

KaaPo beat Kiffen 1-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on June 11, 2018.

The match was played at Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki).