Kiffen 4–0 JäPS II: Result & Stats

Kiffen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

JäPS II

7/3/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 12Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Kiffen63%

×Draw19%

JäPS II18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KiffenExpected goals in this matchJäPS II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.15

Kiffen

2.29

JäPS II

1.15

Kiffen creates 99% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 9 away

1.59

creates per match

1.00

1.29

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Kiffen

1.59

JäPS II

1.00

allows per match

Kiffen

1.29

JäPS II

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kiffen+0.00on par

JäPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen ↓

JäPS II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kiffen or draw

82%

Kiffen or JäPS II

81%

Draw or JäPS II

37%

Winning margin

Kiffen wins by 2+

40%

JäPS II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kiffen 1+ goals

90%

Kiffen 2+ goals

66%

Kiffen 3+ goals

40%

JäPS II 1+ goals

68%

JäPS II 2+ goals

32%

JäPS II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kiffen (draw refunded)

78%

JäPS II (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 58 matches

JäPS II away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen attack 1.59 + JäPS II defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

JäPS II attack 1.00 + Kiffen defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kiffen scores more

63%

level

19%

JäPS II scores more

18%

Kiffen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kiffen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff