Kiffen 1–5 Honka Akatemia: Result & Stats

Kiffen

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Honka Akatemia

6/20/2018

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 9Töölön Pallokenttä (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Kiffen34%

×Draw26%

Honka Akatemia40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KiffenExpected goals in this matchHonka Akatemia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.44

Kiffen

1.30

Honka Akatemia

1.44

Honka Akatemia creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 56 away

1.30

creates per match

1.57

1.30

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Kiffen

1.30

Honka Akatemia

1.57

allows per match

Kiffen

1.30

Honka Akatemia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kiffen+0.00on par

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen ↓

Honka Akatemia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Kiffen or draw

60%

Kiffen or Honka Akatemia

74%

Draw or Honka Akatemia

66%

Winning margin

Kiffen wins by 2+

15%

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kiffen 1+ goals

73%

Kiffen 2+ goals

37%

Kiffen 3+ goals

14%

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

76%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

42%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Kiffen (draw refunded)

46%

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Honka Akatemia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen attack 1.30 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.30

Honka Akatemia attack 1.57 + Kiffen defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kiffen scores more

34%

level

26%

Honka Akatemia scores more

40%

Honka Akatemia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff