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Kiffen 08 III vs Mariehamn — Suomen Cup 2018

Kiffen 08 III
Kiffen 08 III
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Mariehamn
Mariehamnadvanced
4/14/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128Toolon Pallokentta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kiffen 08 III5%
×Draw10%
Mariehamn85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kiffen 08 III
0.85
Mariehamn
3.54

Mariehamn creates 316% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 25 away

creates per match

Kiffen 08 III
0.67
Mariehamn
2.40

allows per match

Kiffen 08 III
4.67
Mariehamn
1.04

finishing

Kiffen 08 III+0.00on par
Mariehamn+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen 08 III ↓

Mariehamn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–15%
0–28%
0–310%
0–49%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (10%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Kiffen 08 III or draw
15%
Kiffen 08 III or Mariehamn
90%
Draw or Mariehamn
95%

Winning margin

Kiffen 08 III wins by 2+
2%
Mariehamn wins by 2+
69%

Team goals

Kiffen 08 III 1+ goals
57%
Kiffen 08 III 2+ goals
21%
Kiffen 08 III 3+ goals
5%
Mariehamn 1+ goals
97%
Mariehamn 2+ goals
86%
Mariehamn 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

Kiffen 08 III (draw refunded)
6%
Mariehamn (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kiffen 08 III at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

Mariehamn away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen 08 III attack 0.67 + Mariehamn defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.85

Mariehamn attack 2.40 + Kiffen 08 III defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Kiffen 08 III scores more
5%
level
10%
Mariehamn scores more
85%

Mariehamn at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Mariehamn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Kiffen 08 III 0–5 Mariehamn

Mariehamn beat Kiffen 08 III 5-0 in Suomen Cup on April 14, 2026.

The match was played at Toolon Pallokentta in Helsinki.