Kiffen 08 III 0–6 EsPa: Result & Stats | Suomen Cup

Kiffen 08 III

0 – 6

EsPa

3/2/2022

Suomen Cup · 1st RoundMatinkylän urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kiffen 08 III3%

×Draw5%

EsPa93%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kiffen 08 IIIExpected goals in this matchEsPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

5.40

Kiffen 08 III

1.02

EsPa

5.40

EsPa creates 429% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.67

creates per match

6.13

4.67

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Kiffen 08 III

0.67

EsPa

6.13

allows per match

Kiffen 08 III

4.67

EsPa

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kiffen 08 III+0.00on par

EsPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kiffen 08 III ↓

EsPa →

0–00%

0–11%

0–23%

0–36%

0–48%

1–00%

1–11%

1–23%

1–36%

1–48%

2–00%

2–11%

2–22%

2–33%

2–44%

3–00%

3–10%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (8%) · grid covers 53% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

83%17%4.5

67%33%

Double chance

Kiffen 08 III or draw

Kiffen 08 III or EsPa

95%

Draw or EsPa

97%

Winning margin

Kiffen 08 III wins by 2+

EsPa wins by 2+

83%

Team goals

Kiffen 08 III 1+ goals

64%

Kiffen 08 III 2+ goals

27%

Kiffen 08 III 3+ goals

EsPa 1+ goals

99%

EsPa 2+ goals

96%

EsPa 3+ goals

86%

Draw no bet

Kiffen 08 III (draw refunded)

EsPa (draw refunded)

97%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Kiffen 08 III at home — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

EsPa away — creates 6.13, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Kiffen 08 III attack 0.67 + EsPa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

EsPa attack 6.13 + Kiffen 08 III defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 5.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 93%?"

Kiffen 08 III scores more

level

EsPa scores more

93%

EsPa at 93% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 93% does not mean "EsPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff