KIF Örebro W 1–2 Växjö W: Result & Stats

KIF Örebro W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Växjö W

M. Bodin 32'

E. Ijeh 28', 10'

7/2/2023

Damallsvenskan · Round 16Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

KIF Örebro W49%

×Draw24%

Växjö W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KIF Örebro WExpected goals in this matchVäxjö W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.23

KIF Örebro W

1.71

Växjö W

1.23

KIF Örebro W creates 39% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 66 away

1.26

creates per match

1.08

1.37

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

KIF Örebro W

1.26

Växjö W

1.08

allows per match

KIF Örebro W

1.37

Växjö W

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Växjö W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KIF Örebro W ↓

Växjö W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

KIF Örebro W or draw

72%

KIF Örebro W or Växjö W

76%

Draw or Växjö W

51%

Winning margin

KIF Örebro W wins by 2+

26%

Växjö W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

KIF Örebro W 1+ goals

82%

KIF Örebro W 2+ goals

51%

KIF Örebro W 3+ goals

24%

Växjö W 1+ goals

71%

Växjö W 2+ goals

35%

Växjö W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)

64%

Växjö W (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KIF Örebro W at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.37 · 62 matches

Växjö W away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KIF Örebro W attack 1.26 + Växjö W defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.71

Växjö W attack 1.08 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

KIF Örebro W scores more

49%

level

24%

Växjö W scores more

28%

KIF Örebro W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "KIF Örebro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

28'

32'

36'

70'

T. Birgerud← H. Ellingsen

73'

L. Lillbäck← A. Harding

73'

I. Björnberg← A. Lundgren

80'

E. Pelgander← E. Peuhkurinen

81'

M. Kovacs← M. Bodin

88'

L. Frisk← E. Pelgander

89'

H. Stokki← E. Ijeh

90+4'

E. Hammarbäck← M. Thomsen

KIF

Växjö

1

Högrell

3

Pennsäter

14

▼

Thomsen

77

▼

8

6

33

15

21

9

⚽2

▼

10

1

8

13

16

▼

Lundgren

19

▼

Peuhkurin

14

Kosola

7

▼

Pelgander

4

Steiglede

10

Kollanen

88

⚽

▼

Bodin

18

▼

Harding

Manager: R. Johansson

73'▲L. Lillbäck←▼A. Harding

73'▲I. Björnberg←▼A. Lundgren

80'▲E. Pelgander←▼E. Peuhkurinen

81'▲M. Kovacs←▼M. Bodin

88'▲L. Frisk←▼E. Pelgander

KIF Örebro W substitutes

9Lillbäck12Björnberg6Pelgander3Kovacs15Frisk20Feo25Ekstrand

Manager: O. Unogård

70'▲T. Birgerud←▼H. Ellingsen

89'▲H. Stokki←▼E. Ijeh

90+4'▲E. Hammarbäck←▼M. Thomsen

Växjö W substitutes

4Birgerud7Stokki17Hammarbäck26Rosita93Davidsson20Ekstrand

Damallsvenskan: KIF Örebro W 1–2 Växjö W

Växjö W beat KIF Örebro W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on July 2, 2023.

Goals: E. Ijeh (10', 28'), M. Bodin (32').

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.

KIF Örebro W vs Växjö W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: KIF Örebro W 1–2 Växjö W