KIF Örebro W 2–3 Bollstanäs W: Result & Stats

KIF Örebro W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Bollstanäs W

B. Sember 90'

H. Gross-Benberg 46'

E. Lundh 36'

J. Laukstrom 10', 2'

5/10/2025

Elitettan · Round 5Behrn Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

KIF Örebro W58%

×Draw20%

Bollstanäs W22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KIF Örebro WExpected goals in this matchBollstanäs W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.32

KIF Örebro W

2.25

Bollstanäs W

1.32

KIF Örebro W creates 70% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

2.28

creates per match

1.21

1.44

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

KIF Örebro W

2.28

Bollstanäs W

1.21

allows per match

KIF Örebro W

1.44

Bollstanäs W

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KIF Örebro W+0.00on par

Bollstanäs W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KIF Örebro W ↓

Bollstanäs W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

KIF Örebro W or draw

78%

KIF Örebro W or Bollstanäs W

80%

Draw or Bollstanäs W

42%

Winning margin

KIF Örebro W wins by 2+

36%

Bollstanäs W wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

KIF Örebro W 1+ goals

89%

KIF Örebro W 2+ goals

65%

KIF Örebro W 3+ goals

39%

Bollstanäs W 1+ goals

73%

Bollstanäs W 2+ goals

38%

Bollstanäs W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

KIF Örebro W (draw refunded)

73%

Bollstanäs W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KIF Örebro W at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

Bollstanäs W away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.21 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KIF Örebro W attack 2.28 + Bollstanäs W defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.25

Bollstanäs W attack 1.21 + KIF Örebro W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

KIF Örebro W scores more

58%

level

20%

Bollstanäs W scores more

22%

KIF Örebro W at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "KIF Örebro W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

10'

36'

46'

59'

C. Rubensson← W. Sjoholm

72'

N. Karlsson← A. Bergstrom

72'

L. Norrby← M. Babic

75'

M. Alvin← H. Gross-Benberg

82'

V. Hellman← V. Andersson

83'

L. Sjolund← E. Lundh

83'

A. Jalkinger← A. Thorisson

90'

J. Dimberg← L. Aglert

90'

B. Sember

KIF

Bollstanäs

1

Fock

5

⚽2

Laukstrom

8

Frank

11

▼

Thorisson

15

▼

Bergstrom

16

▼

17

18

24

25

⚽

▼

Lundh

9

▼

Babic

12

Langorgen

2

▼

5

3

7

10

13

11

14

⚽

▼

Gross-Ben

18

⚽

Sember

33

▼

Sjoholm

Manager: F. Andersson

59'▲C. Rubensson←▼W. Sjoholm

75'▲M. Alvin←▼H. Gross-Benberg

82'▲V. Hellman←▼V. Andersson

KIF Örebro W substitutes

22Portugues4Alm6Zakrisson8Hellman9Rubensson19Alvin20Dahlman

Manager: Z. Aslam

72'▲N. Karlsson←▼A. Bergstrom

72'▲L. Norrby←▼M. Babic

83'▲L. Sjolund←▼E. Lundh

83'▲A. Jalkinger←▼A. Thorisson

90'▲J. Dimberg←▼L. Aglert

Bollstanäs W substitutes

30Wilson2Karlsson4Norrby19Katzay20Sjolund21Jalkinger23Dimberg

Elitettan: KIF Örebro W 2–3 Bollstanäs W

Bollstanäs W beat KIF Örebro W 3-2 in Elitettan on May 10, 2025.

Goals: J. Laukstrom (2', 10'), E. Lundh (36'), H. Gross-Benberg (46'), B. Sember (90').

The match was played at Behrn Arena in Örebro.

KIF Örebro W vs Bollstanäs W — Elitettan 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Elitettan: KIF Örebro W 2–3 Bollstanäs W