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Kidsgrove Athletic vs Avro — League #54 2026

Kidsgrove Athletic
Kidsgrove Athletic
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Avro
Avro
3/24/2026League #54League #54

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kidsgrove Athletic36%
×Draw26%
Avro38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kidsgrove Athletic
1.30
Avro
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kidsgrove Athletic
1.67
Avro
1.69

allows per match

Kidsgrove Athletic
1.00
Avro
0.94

finishing

Kidsgrove Athletic+0.00on par
Avro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kidsgrove Athletic ↓

Avro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kidsgrove Athletic or draw
62%
Kidsgrove Athletic or Avro
74%
Draw or Avro
64%

Winning margin

Kidsgrove Athletic wins by 2+
16%
Avro wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kidsgrove Athletic 1+ goals
73%
Kidsgrove Athletic 2+ goals
37%
Kidsgrove Athletic 3+ goals
14%
Avro 1+ goals
74%
Avro 2+ goals
39%
Avro 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kidsgrove Athletic (draw refunded)
49%
Avro (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kidsgrove Athletic at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Avro away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kidsgrove Athletic attack 1.67 + Avro defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.30

Avro attack 1.69 + Kidsgrove Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kidsgrove Athletic scores more
36%
level
26%
Avro scores more
38%

Avro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Avro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kidsgrove Athletic vs Avro

Kidsgrove Athletic beat Avro 3-1 in League #54 on March 24, 2026.