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Kidderminster Harriers W vs Stourbridge W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Kidderminster Harriers W
Kidderminster Harriers W
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stourbridge W
Stourbridge W
11/27/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Centre of Sporting Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kidderminster Harriers W51%
×Draw20%
Stourbridge W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kidderminster Harriers W
2.33
Stourbridge W
1.71

Kidderminster Harriers W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kidderminster Harriers W
2.00
Stourbridge W
2.17

allows per match

Kidderminster Harriers W
1.25
Stourbridge W
2.67

finishing

Kidderminster Harriers W+0.00on par
Stourbridge W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kidderminster Harriers W ↓

Stourbridge W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kidderminster Harriers W or draw
71%
Kidderminster Harriers W or Stourbridge W
80%
Draw or Stourbridge W
49%

Winning margin

Kidderminster Harriers W wins by 2+
31%
Stourbridge W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kidderminster Harriers W 1+ goals
90%
Kidderminster Harriers W 2+ goals
67%
Kidderminster Harriers W 3+ goals
41%
Stourbridge W 1+ goals
82%
Stourbridge W 2+ goals
51%
Stourbridge W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kidderminster Harriers W (draw refunded)
64%
Stourbridge W (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kidderminster Harriers W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Stourbridge W away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kidderminster Harriers W attack 2.00 + Stourbridge W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Stourbridge W attack 2.17 + Kidderminster Harriers W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kidderminster Harriers W scores more
51%
level
20%
Stourbridge W scores more
29%

Kidderminster Harriers W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kidderminster Harriers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kidderminster Harriers W vs Stourbridge W

Kidderminster Harriers W and Stourbridge W drew 1-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2024.

The match was played at The Centre of Sporting Excellence in Kidderminster, Worcestershire.