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Kidderminster Harriers W vs Port Vale W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Kidderminster Harriers W
Kidderminster Harriers W
FT
3 – 1
Port Vale W
Port Vale W
11/3/2024FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 1st RoundThe Centre of Sporting Excellence

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kidderminster Harriers W57%
×Draw20%
Port Vale W24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kidderminster Harriers W
2.33
Port Vale W
1.46

Kidderminster Harriers W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kidderminster Harriers W
2.00
Port Vale W
1.67

allows per match

Kidderminster Harriers W
1.25
Port Vale W
2.67

finishing

Kidderminster Harriers W+0.00on par
Port Vale W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kidderminster Harriers W ↓

Port Vale W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kidderminster Harriers W or draw
76%
Kidderminster Harriers W or Port Vale W
80%
Draw or Port Vale W
43%

Winning margin

Kidderminster Harriers W wins by 2+
35%
Port Vale W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kidderminster Harriers W 1+ goals
90%
Kidderminster Harriers W 2+ goals
67%
Kidderminster Harriers W 3+ goals
41%
Port Vale W 1+ goals
77%
Port Vale W 2+ goals
43%
Port Vale W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kidderminster Harriers W (draw refunded)
71%
Port Vale W (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kidderminster Harriers W at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Port Vale W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kidderminster Harriers W attack 2.00 + Port Vale W defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Port Vale W attack 1.67 + Kidderminster Harriers W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kidderminster Harriers W scores more
57%
level
20%
Port Vale W scores more
24%

Kidderminster Harriers W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kidderminster Harriers W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Kidderminster Harriers W 3–1 Port Vale W

Kidderminster Harriers W beat Port Vale W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at The Centre of Sporting Excellence in Kidderminster, Worcestershire.