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Kidderminster Harriers vs South Shields — League #50 2026

Kidderminster Harriers
Kidderminster Harriers
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
South Shields
South Shields
4/25/2026League #50League #50 · North - 46Aggborough Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kidderminster Harriers47%
×Draw26%
South Shields27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kidderminster Harriers
1.52
South Shields
1.10

Kidderminster Harriers creates 38% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kidderminster Harriers
1.57
South Shields
1.50

allows per match

Kidderminster Harriers
0.71
South Shields
1.46

finishing

Kidderminster Harriers+0.00on par
South Shields+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kidderminster Harriers ↓

South Shields →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kidderminster Harriers or draw
73%
Kidderminster Harriers or South Shields
74%
Draw or South Shields
53%

Winning margin

Kidderminster Harriers wins by 2+
24%
South Shields wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kidderminster Harriers 1+ goals
78%
Kidderminster Harriers 2+ goals
45%
Kidderminster Harriers 3+ goals
20%
South Shields 1+ goals
67%
South Shields 2+ goals
30%
South Shields 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kidderminster Harriers (draw refunded)
63%
South Shields (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kidderminster Harriers at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

South Shields away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kidderminster Harriers attack 1.57 + South Shields defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.52

South Shields attack 1.50 + Kidderminster Harriers defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kidderminster Harriers scores more
47%
level
26%
South Shields scores more
27%

Kidderminster Harriers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kidderminster Harriers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #50: Kidderminster Harriers 1–0 South Shields

Kidderminster Harriers beat South Shields 1-0 in League #50 on April 25, 2026.

The match was played at Aggborough Stadium in Kidderminster.