Kickers Offenbach U19 3–1 Schott Mainz U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Schott Mainz U19

A. Pistritto 89'

M. Afşar 37'

C. Bah 13'

J. Frisch 78'

8/14/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 3SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1954%

×Draw19%

Schott Mainz U1927%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchSchott Mainz U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.77

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.54

Schott Mainz U19

1.77

Kickers Offenbach U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 26 away

1.77

creates per match

1.08

2.46

allows per match

3.31

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Schott Mainz U19

1.08

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Schott Mainz U19

3.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Schott Mainz U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Schott Mainz U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

73%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Schott Mainz U19

81%

Draw or Schott Mainz U19

46%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

34%

Schott Mainz U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

92%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

72%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

46%

Schott Mainz U19 1+ goals

83%

Schott Mainz U19 2+ goals

53%

Schott Mainz U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Schott Mainz U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Schott Mainz U19 away — creates 1.08, concedes 3.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Schott Mainz U19 defence 3.31 → ÷2 → 2.54

Schott Mainz U19 attack 1.08 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

54%

level

19%

Schott Mainz U19 scores more

27%

Kickers Offenbach U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kickers Offenbach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

C. Bah

37'

M. Afşar

56'

L. Bernjus← D. Maličević

56'

B. Patschke← P. Offermann

61'

R. Mben Bata← R. Zablotzky

61'

T. Karacaga← S. Bouzarzar

67'

F. Lang← S. Bousfia

67'

J. Frisch← P. Mokam

71'

M. Bouzelha← S. Demirköprü

78'

J. Frisch

79'

L. Chirivi← K. Benali

79'

T. Eckstein← F. Wronkowski

89'

A. Pistritto

90'

C. Demirköprü← C. Bah

90'

E. Delikaya← R. Di Salvo

Kickers

Schott

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Bah

Manager: S. Stuppia

61'▲R. Mben Bata←▼R. Zablotzky

61'▲T. Karacaga←▼S. Bouzarzar

71'▲M. Bouzelha←▼S. Demirköprü

90'▲C. Demirköprü←▼C. Bah

90'▲E. Delikaya←▼R. Di Salvo

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

BataKaracagaBouzelhaDemirköprüDelikayaFilipovicReiter

Manager: P. Staegemann

56'▲L. Bernjus←▼D. Maličević

56'▲B. Patschke←▼P. Offermann

67'▲F. Lang←▼S. Bousfia

67'▲J. Frisch←▼P. Mokam

79'▲L. Chirivi←▼K. Benali

79'▲T. Eckstein←▼F. Wronkowski

Schott Mainz U19 substitutes

BernjusPatschkeLangFrischChiriviEcksteinBrajovic

U19 Bundesliga: Kickers Offenbach U19 3–1 Schott Mainz U19

Kickers Offenbach U19 beat Schott Mainz U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 14, 2024.

Goals: C. Bah (13'), M. Afşar (37'), J. Frisch (78'), A. Pistritto (89').

The match was played at SANA Sportpark in Offenbach.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Schott Mainz U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kickers Offenbach U19 3–1 Schott Mainz U19