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Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Kickers Offenbach U19
Kickers Offenbach U19
CANC
10:00
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
11/7/2020U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 6SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1923%
×Draw19%
Mainz 05 U1958%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kickers Offenbach U19
1.50
Mainz 05 U19
2.43

Mainz 05 U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 75 away

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19
1.77
Mainz 05 U19
2.40

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19
2.46
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw
42%
Kickers Offenbach U19 or Mainz 05 U19
81%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
77%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+
10%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals
78%
Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals
44%
Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals
19%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
91%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
69%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)
29%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more
23%
level
19%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
58%

Mainz 05 U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kickers Offenbach U19 host Mainz 05 U19

November 7, 2020: Kickers Offenbach U19 take on Mainz 05 U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kickers Offenbach U19 host Mainz 05 U19 at SANA Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.