Kickers Offenbach U19 1–1 Ingolstadt U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ingolstadt U19

N. Schywalski 4'

I. Madougou 37'

3/1/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 12SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1930%

×Draw20%

Ingolstadt U1950%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchIngolstadt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

2.28

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.74

Ingolstadt U19

2.28

Ingolstadt U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 73 away

1.77

creates per match

2.10

2.46

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Ingolstadt U19

2.10

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Ingolstadt U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Ingolstadt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Ingolstadt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

50%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Ingolstadt U19

80%

Draw or Ingolstadt U19

70%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

15%

Ingolstadt U19 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

82%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

52%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

25%

Ingolstadt U19 1+ goals

90%

Ingolstadt U19 2+ goals

66%

Ingolstadt U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Ingolstadt U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Ingolstadt U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.71 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Ingolstadt U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.74

Ingolstadt U19 attack 2.10 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

30%

level

20%

Ingolstadt U19 scores more

50%

Ingolstadt U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ingolstadt U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

N. Schywalski

34'

V. Reppel← Z. Daaou

37'

I. Madougou

46'

B. Causevic← D. Sekulovic

46'

F. Brunner← I. Madougou

60'

Kim Dong-woo← M. Aimene

80'

K. Iraqi← J. Blockus

80'

L. Nuhanovic← G. Conti

89'

M. Schmid← M. Udebuluzor

Kickers

Ingolstadt

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: R. Trabert

34'▲V. Reppel←▼Z. Daaou

60'▲Kim Dong-woo←▼M. Aimene

80'▲K. Iraqi←▼J. Blockus

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

ReppelDong-wooIraqiKarakaşFurnariKadoićNassery

Manager: S. Wittmann

46'▲B. Causevic←▼D. Sekulovic

46'▲F. Brunner←▼I. Madougou

80'▲L. Nuhanovic←▼G. Conti

89'▲M. Schmid←▼M. Udebuluzor

Ingolstadt U19 substitutes

CausevicBrunnerNuhanovicSchmidAlišanovićPerićDehler

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Ingolstadt U19

Kickers Offenbach U19 and Ingolstadt U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 1, 2022.

Goals: N. Schywalski (4'), I. Madougou (37').

The match was played at SANA Sportpark in Offenbach.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Ingolstadt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Ingolstadt U19