Kickers Offenbach U19 0–4 Darmstadt 98 U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Darmstadt 98 U19

T. Streller 70' (pen)

M. Feldmann 59', 14'

F. Torsiello 56'

2/26/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 16Kunstrasenplatz 2 OF SANA Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1940%

×Draw21%

Darmstadt 98 U1940%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchDarmstadt 98 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.01

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 48 away

1.77

creates per match

1.56

2.46

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Darmstadt 98 U19

1.56

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Darmstadt 98 U19

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Darmstadt 98 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Darmstadt 98 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

60%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Darmstadt 98 U19

79%

Draw or Darmstadt 98 U19

60%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

22%

Darmstadt 98 U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

87%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

59%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

32%

Darmstadt 98 U19 1+ goals

87%

Darmstadt 98 U19 2+ goals

59%

Darmstadt 98 U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Darmstadt 98 U19 (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Darmstadt 98 U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Darmstadt 98 U19 defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.01

Darmstadt 98 U19 attack 1.56 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

40%

level

21%

Darmstadt 98 U19 scores more

40%

Kickers Offenbach U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kickers Offenbach U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

M. Feldmann

54'

J. Klein← F. Phlepsen

56'

F. Torsiello

59'

M. Feldmann

64'

C. Karakaş← Kim Dong-woo

64'

V. Reppel← M. Aimene

70'

T. StrellerPenalty

79'

B. von Hagen← D. Starodid

79'

U. Nassery← J. Blockus

79'

M. Borger← F. Torsiello

85'

J. Mühlig← P. Hamm

88'

N. Baier← M. Feldmann

Kickers

Darmstadt

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

▼

Feldmann

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Trabert

64'▲C. Karakaş←▼Kim Dong-woo

64'▲V. Reppel←▼M. Aimene

79'▲B. von Hagen←▼D. Starodid

79'▲U. Nassery←▼J. Blockus

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

KarakaşReppelHagenNasseryFurnariAcunMrvelj

Manager: G. Leopold

54'▲J. Klein←▼F. Phlepsen

79'▲M. Borger←▼F. Torsiello

85'▲J. Mühlig←▼P. Hamm

88'▲N. Baier←▼M. Feldmann

Darmstadt 98 U19 substitutes

KleinBorgerMühligBaierSamarelliTochKaiser

U19 Bundesliga: Kickers Offenbach U19 0–4 Darmstadt 98 U19

Darmstadt 98 U19 beat Kickers Offenbach U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 26, 2022.

Goals: M. Feldmann (14', 59'), F. Torsiello (56'), T. Streller (70' pen).

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 2 OF SANA Sportpark in Offenbach am Main.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Darmstadt 98 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Kickers Offenbach U19 0–4 Darmstadt 98 U19