Kickers Offenbach U19 3–2 Bayern München U19

Kickers Offenbach U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Bayern München U19

S. Süsin 50'

E. Mahmuti 44'

R. Mrvelj 40'

A. Ibrahimović 59'

M. Sanyang 16'

4/30/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 21SANA-Sportpark Rasenplatz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Kickers Offenbach U1926%

×Draw19%

Bayern München U1955%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kickers Offenbach U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

2.54

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.72

Bayern München U19

2.54

Bayern München U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 72 away

1.77

creates per match

2.63

2.46

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

1.77

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Kickers Offenbach U19

2.46

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kickers Offenbach U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kickers Offenbach U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Kickers Offenbach U19 or draw

45%

Kickers Offenbach U19 or Bayern München U19

81%

Draw or Bayern München U19

74%

Winning margin

Kickers Offenbach U19 wins by 2+

12%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Kickers Offenbach U19 1+ goals

82%

Kickers Offenbach U19 2+ goals

51%

Kickers Offenbach U19 3+ goals

25%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

92%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

72%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Kickers Offenbach U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kickers Offenbach U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.46 · 48 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kickers Offenbach U19 attack 1.77 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.72

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Kickers Offenbach U19 defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kickers Offenbach U19 scores more

26%

level

19%

Bayern München U19 scores more

55%

Bayern München U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Sanyang

40'

R. Mrvelj

44'

E. Mahmuti

46'

N. Acun← A. Mesanovic

46'

W. Sulley← B. Hepburn

46'

M. Schablas← M. Vinlöf

50'

59'

81'

87'

87'

B. Wimmer← T. Buchmann

90+2'

F. Mannweiler← S. Puth

90+3'

I. Toutoukpe← S. Süsin

Kickers

Bayern

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: R. Trabert

46'▲N. Acun←▼A. Mesanovic

87'▲R. Schwarz←▼N. Acun

90+2'▲F. Mannweiler←▼S. Puth

90+3'▲I. Toutoukpe←▼S. Süsin

Kickers Offenbach U19 substitutes

AcunSchwarzMannweilerToutoukpeIraqiFurnari

Manager: M. Demichelis

46'▲W. Sulley←▼B. Hepburn

46'▲M. Schablas←▼M. Vinlöf

81'▲S. Sen←▼A. Pavlović

87'▲B. Wimmer←▼T. Buchmann

Bayern München U19 substitutes

SulleySchablasSenWimmerBallisDemircan

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Bayern München U19

Kickers Offenbach U19 beat Bayern München U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 30, 2022.

Goals: M. Sanyang (16'), R. Mrvelj (40'), E. Mahmuti (44'), S. Süsin (50'), A. Ibrahimović (59').

The match was played at SANA-Sportpark Rasenplatz 3 in Offenbach am Main.

Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kickers Offenbach U19 vs Bayern München U19