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Kick Start vs Wotton — Premier League 2024

Kick Start
Kick Start
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wotton
Wotton
2/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kick Start70%
×Draw15%
Wotton15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kick Start
2.98
Wotton
1.33

Kick Start creates 124% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kick Start
2.53
Wotton
1.35

allows per match

Kick Start
1.32
Wotton
3.43

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw
85%
Kick Start or Wotton
85%
Draw or Wotton
30%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+
50%
Wotton wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals
95%
Kick Start 2+ goals
79%
Kick Start 3+ goals
56%
Wotton 1+ goals
74%
Wotton 2+ goals
38%
Wotton 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)
83%
Wotton (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.35, concedes 3.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.53 + Wotton defence 3.43 → ÷2 → 2.98

Wotton attack 1.35 + Kick Start defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kick Start scores more
70%
level
15%
Wotton scores more
15%

Kick Start at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kick Start 3–1 Wotton

Kick Start beat Wotton 3-1 in Premier League on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.