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Kick Start vs Weymouth Wales — Premier League 2026

Kick Start
Kick Start
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Weymouth Wales
Weymouth Wales
5/25/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Kick Start35%
×Draw21%
Weymouth Wales44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kick Start
1.85
Weymouth Wales
2.08

Weymouth Wales creates 12% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 20 away

creates per match

Kick Start
2.86
Weymouth Wales
2.60

allows per match

Kick Start
1.57
Weymouth Wales
0.85

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par
Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

Weymouth Wales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw
56%
Kick Start or Weymouth Wales
79%
Draw or Weymouth Wales
65%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+
18%
Weymouth Wales wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals
84%
Kick Start 2+ goals
55%
Kick Start 3+ goals
28%
Weymouth Wales 1+ goals
87%
Weymouth Wales 2+ goals
61%
Weymouth Wales 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)
44%
Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.86, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.86 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Weymouth Wales attack 2.60 + Kick Start defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kick Start scores more
35%
level
21%
Weymouth Wales scores more
44%

Weymouth Wales at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kick Start vs Weymouth Wales

Weymouth Wales beat Kick Start 1-0 in Premier League on May 25, 2026.