Kick Start 1–1 Weymouth Wales: Result & Stats

Kick Start

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Weymouth Wales

3/11/2024

Premier League · Round 3Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kick Start27%

×Draw21%

Weymouth Wales52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kick StartExpected goals in this matchWeymouth Wales

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

2.19

Kick Start

1.54

Weymouth Wales

2.19

Weymouth Wales creates 42% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 42 away

2.32

creates per match

3.05

1.32

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Kick Start

2.32

Weymouth Wales

3.05

allows per match

Kick Start

1.32

Weymouth Wales

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par

Weymouth Wales+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

Weymouth Wales →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw

48%

Kick Start or Weymouth Wales

79%

Draw or Weymouth Wales

73%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+

12%

Weymouth Wales wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals

79%

Kick Start 2+ goals

45%

Kick Start 3+ goals

20%

Weymouth Wales 1+ goals

89%

Weymouth Wales 2+ goals

64%

Weymouth Wales 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)

34%

Weymouth Wales (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Weymouth Wales away — creates 3.05, concedes 0.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.32 + Weymouth Wales defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

Weymouth Wales attack 3.05 + Kick Start defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kick Start scores more

27%

level

21%

Weymouth Wales scores more

52%

Weymouth Wales at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Weymouth Wales will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff