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Kick Start vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2024

Kick Start
Kick Start
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
3/22/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kick Start51%
×Draw22%
UWI Blackbirds27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kick Start
1.97
UWI Blackbirds
1.40

Kick Start creates 41% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kick Start
2.53
UWI Blackbirds
1.47

allows per match

Kick Start
1.32
UWI Blackbirds
1.42

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw
73%
Kick Start or UWI Blackbirds
78%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
49%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+
29%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals
86%
Kick Start 2+ goals
58%
Kick Start 3+ goals
31%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
75%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
41%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)
65%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.53 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.97

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.47 + Kick Start defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kick Start scores more
51%
level
22%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
27%

Kick Start at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kick Start vs UWI Blackbirds

Kick Start beat UWI Blackbirds 1-0 in Premier League on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.