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Kick Start vs UWI Blackbirds — Premier League 2019

Kick Start
Kick Start
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UWI Blackbirds
UWI Blackbirds
2/19/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Kick Start49%
×Draw22%
UWI Blackbirds29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kick Start
1.96
UWI Blackbirds
1.46

Kick Start creates 34% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kick Start
2.32
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

allows per match

Kick Start
1.32
UWI Blackbirds
1.59

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par
UWI Blackbirds+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

UWI Blackbirds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw
71%
Kick Start or UWI Blackbirds
78%
Draw or UWI Blackbirds
51%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+
28%
UWI Blackbirds wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals
86%
Kick Start 2+ goals
58%
Kick Start 3+ goals
31%
UWI Blackbirds 1+ goals
77%
UWI Blackbirds 2+ goals
43%
UWI Blackbirds 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)
63%
UWI Blackbirds (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

UWI Blackbirds away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.32 + UWI Blackbirds defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.96

UWI Blackbirds attack 1.59 + Kick Start defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kick Start scores more
49%
level
22%
UWI Blackbirds scores more
29%

Kick Start at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kick Start vs UWI Blackbirds

Kick Start and UWI Blackbirds drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 19, 2024.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.