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Kick Start vs Pride of Gall Hill — Premier League 2019

Kick Start
Kick Start
FT
0 – 0
Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
2/9/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Friendship Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kick Start59%
×Draw21%
Pride of Gall Hill20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kick Start
2.04
Pride of Gall Hill
1.11

Kick Start creates 84% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kick Start
2.32
Pride of Gall Hill
0.90

allows per match

Kick Start
1.32
Pride of Gall Hill
1.76

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par
Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

Pride of Gall Hill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw
80%
Kick Start or Pride of Gall Hill
79%
Draw or Pride of Gall Hill
41%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+
35%
Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals
87%
Kick Start 2+ goals
60%
Kick Start 3+ goals
33%
Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
67%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
30%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)
74%
Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Pride of Gall Hill away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 2.32 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.04

Pride of Gall Hill attack 0.90 + Kick Start defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kick Start scores more
59%
level
21%
Pride of Gall Hill scores more
20%

Kick Start at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kick Start vs Pride of Gall Hill

Kick Start and Pride of Gall Hill drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Friendship Playing Fields in Friendship.