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Kick Start vs Ellerton — Premier League 2026

Kick Start
Kick Start
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ellerton
Ellerton
1/21/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kick Start60%
×Draw19%
Ellerton21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kick Start
2.42
Ellerton
1.38

Kick Start creates 75% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Kick Start
3.75
Ellerton
2.00

allows per match

Kick Start
0.75
Ellerton
1.10

finishing

Kick Start+0.00on par
Ellerton+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kick Start ↓

Ellerton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Kick Start or draw
79%
Kick Start or Ellerton
81%
Draw or Ellerton
40%

Winning margin

Kick Start wins by 2+
39%
Ellerton wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kick Start 1+ goals
91%
Kick Start 2+ goals
69%
Kick Start 3+ goals
43%
Ellerton 1+ goals
75%
Ellerton 2+ goals
40%
Ellerton 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kick Start (draw refunded)
74%
Ellerton (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kick Start at home — creates 3.75, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

Ellerton away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kick Start attack 3.75 + Ellerton defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 2.42

Ellerton attack 2.00 + Kick Start defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kick Start scores more
60%
level
19%
Ellerton scores more
21%

Kick Start at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kick Start will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kick Start 1–1 Ellerton

Kick Start and Ellerton drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 21, 2026.