Kibera Black Stars 2–1 Vihiga Bullets

Kibera Black Stars

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vihiga Bullets

3/10/2024

Super League · Round 22Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kibera Black Stars54%

×Draw26%

Vihiga Bullets20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kibera Black StarsExpected goals in this matchVihiga Bullets

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.79

Kibera Black Stars

1.50

Vihiga Bullets

0.79

Kibera Black Stars creates 90% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 19 away

1.33

creates per match

0.84

0.75

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars

1.33

Vihiga Bullets

0.84

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars

0.75

Vihiga Bullets

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Vihiga Bullets+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Vihiga Bullets →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw

80%

Kibera Black Stars or Vihiga Bullets

74%

Draw or Vihiga Bullets

46%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

28%

Vihiga Bullets wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

78%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

44%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

19%

Vihiga Bullets 1+ goals

55%

Vihiga Bullets 2+ goals

19%

Vihiga Bullets 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

73%

Vihiga Bullets (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Vihiga Bullets away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Vihiga Bullets defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vihiga Bullets attack 0.84 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more

54%

level

26%

Vihiga Bullets scores more

20%

Kibera Black Stars at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff