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Kibera Black Stars vs Ushuru FC — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
1 – 1
Ushuru FC
Ushuru FC
9/22/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Super League - Round 34

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kibera Black Stars34%
×Draw30%
Ushuru FC37%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.05
Ushuru FC
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.34
Ushuru FC
1.47

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.74
Ushuru FC
0.76

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Ushuru FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Ushuru FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
63%
Kibera Black Stars or Ushuru FC
70%
Draw or Ushuru FC
66%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
13%
Ushuru FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
65%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
28%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
9%
Ushuru FC 1+ goals
67%
Ushuru FC 2+ goals
30%
Ushuru FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
48%
Ushuru FC (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 105 matches

Ushuru FC away — creates 1.47, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.34 + Ushuru FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.05

Ushuru FC attack 1.47 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
34%
level
30%
Ushuru FC scores more
37%

Ushuru FC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ushuru FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kibera Black Stars 1–1 Ushuru FC

Kibera Black Stars and Ushuru FC drew 1-1 in Super League on September 22, 2018.