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Kibera Black Stars vs SamWest Blackboots — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
4 – 0
SamWest Blackboots
SamWest Blackboots
2/7/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 19Jamhuri Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kibera Black Stars43%
×Draw27%
SamWest Blackboots30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.35
SamWest Blackboots
1.08

Kibera Black Stars creates 25% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
SamWest Blackboots
1.42

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
SamWest Blackboots
1.37

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
SamWest Blackboots+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

SamWest Blackboots →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
70%
Kibera Black Stars or SamWest Blackboots
73%
Draw or SamWest Blackboots
57%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
20%
SamWest Blackboots wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
74%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
39%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
15%
SamWest Blackboots 1+ goals
66%
SamWest Blackboots 2+ goals
29%
SamWest Blackboots 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
59%
SamWest Blackboots (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

SamWest Blackboots away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + SamWest Blackboots defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.35

SamWest Blackboots attack 1.42 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
43%
level
27%
SamWest Blackboots scores more
30%

Kibera Black Stars at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs SamWest Blackboots

Kibera Black Stars beat SamWest Blackboots 4-0 in Super League on February 7, 2025.

The match was played at Jamhuri Sports Ground in Nairobi.