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Kibera Black Stars vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mathare United
Mathare United
12/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Mpesa Foundation Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kibera Black Stars41%
×Draw28%
Mathare United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.27
Mathare United
1.06

Kibera Black Stars creates 20% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
69%
Kibera Black Stars or Mathare United
72%
Draw or Mathare United
59%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
18%
Mathare United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
72%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
36%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
14%
Mathare United 1+ goals
65%
Mathare United 2+ goals
29%
Mathare United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
57%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
41%
level
28%
Mathare United scores more
31%

Kibera Black Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Mathare United

Kibera Black Stars and Mathare United drew 2-2 in Super League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Mpesa Foundation Academy in Thika.