Kibera Black Stars 2–0 Isibania: Result & Stats

Kibera Black Stars

FT

2 – 0

Isibania

5/6/2018

Super League · Super League - Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kibera Black Stars63%

×Draw24%

Isibania13%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kibera Black StarsExpected goals in this matchIsibania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.59

Kibera Black Stars

1.64

Isibania

0.59

Kibera Black Stars creates 178% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 18 away

1.34

creates per match

0.44

0.74

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars

1.34

Isibania

0.44

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars

0.74

Isibania

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Isibania+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Isibania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw

87%

Kibera Black Stars or Isibania

76%

Draw or Isibania

37%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+

35%

Isibania wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals

81%

Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals

49%

Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals

23%

Isibania 1+ goals

45%

Isibania 2+ goals

12%

Isibania 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)

83%

Isibania (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.74 · 105 matches

Isibania away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.34 + Isibania defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.64

Isibania attack 0.44 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more

63%

level

24%

Isibania scores more

13%

Kibera Black Stars at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff