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Kibera Black Stars vs Darajani Gogo — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Darajani Gogo
Darajani Gogo
9/29/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 2Hope Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Kibera Black Stars49%
×Draw29%
Darajani Gogo22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.31
Darajani Gogo
0.78

Kibera Black Stars creates 68% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
Darajani Gogo
0.82

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
Darajani Gogo
1.28

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Darajani Gogo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Darajani Gogo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
78%
Kibera Black Stars or Darajani Gogo
71%
Draw or Darajani Gogo
51%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
23%
Darajani Gogo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
73%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
38%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
14%
Darajani Gogo 1+ goals
54%
Darajani Gogo 2+ goals
18%
Darajani Gogo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Darajani Gogo (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Darajani Gogo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.28 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Darajani Gogo defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Darajani Gogo attack 0.82 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
49%
level
29%
Darajani Gogo scores more
22%

Kibera Black Stars at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kibera Black Stars vs Darajani Gogo

Kibera Black Stars beat Darajani Gogo 1-0 in Super League on September 29, 2024.

The match was played at Hope Centre in Nairobi.