KI Klaksvik 3–1 Skála: Result & Stats

KI Klaksvik

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Skála

9/1/2024

Meistaradeildin · Round 21Við Djúpumýrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

KI Klaksvik77%

×Draw15%

Skála8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KI KlaksvikExpected goals in this matchSkála

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.52

0.70

KI Klaksvik

2.52

Skála

0.70

KI Klaksvik creates 260% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 60 away

2.80

creates per match

0.78

0.62

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

KI Klaksvik

2.80

Skála

0.78

allows per match

KI Klaksvik

0.62

Skála

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KI Klaksvik+0.00on par

Skála+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KI Klaksvik ↓

Skála →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KI Klaksvik or draw

92%

KI Klaksvik or Skála

85%

Draw or Skála

23%

Winning margin

KI Klaksvik wins by 2+

54%

Skála wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

KI Klaksvik 1+ goals

92%

KI Klaksvik 2+ goals

71%

KI Klaksvik 3+ goals

45%

Skála 1+ goals

50%

Skála 2+ goals

16%

Skála 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

KI Klaksvik (draw refunded)

90%

Skála (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KI Klaksvik at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.62 · 101 matches

Skála away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KI Klaksvik attack 2.80 + Skála defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.52

Skála attack 0.78 + KI Klaksvik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

KI Klaksvik scores more

77%

level

15%

Skála scores more

8%

KI Klaksvik at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "KI Klaksvik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff