KÍ II 0–3 Víkingur II: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

KÍ II

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Víkingur II

6/22/2024

1. Deild · Round 14Uppi á Brekku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

KÍ II34%

×Draw21%

Víkingur II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KÍ IIExpected goals in this matchVíkingur II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

2.00

KÍ II

1.73

Víkingur II

2.00

Víkingur II creates 16% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 102 away

2.02

creates per match

2.40

1.59

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

KÍ II

2.02

Víkingur II

2.40

allows per match

KÍ II

1.59

Víkingur II

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KÍ II+0.00on par

Víkingur II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KÍ II ↓

Víkingur II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

KÍ II or draw

55%

KÍ II or Víkingur II

79%

Draw or Víkingur II

66%

Winning margin

KÍ II wins by 2+

17%

Víkingur II wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

KÍ II 1+ goals

82%

KÍ II 2+ goals

52%

KÍ II 3+ goals

25%

Víkingur II 1+ goals

86%

Víkingur II 2+ goals

59%

Víkingur II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

KÍ II (draw refunded)

43%

Víkingur II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KÍ II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

Víkingur II away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.45 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KÍ II attack 2.02 + Víkingur II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.73

Víkingur II attack 2.40 + KÍ II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KÍ II scores more

34%

level

21%

Víkingur II scores more

45%

Víkingur II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Víkingur II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff