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KÍ II vs NSÍ II — 1. Deild 2019

KÍ II
KÍ II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
NSÍ II
NSÍ II
6/13/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 13Við Djúpumýrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

KÍ II46%
×Draw21%
NSÍ II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KÍ II
2.10
NSÍ II
1.77

KÍ II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 89 away

creates per match

KÍ II
2.02
NSÍ II
1.94

allows per match

KÍ II
1.59
NSÍ II
2.18

finishing

KÍ II+0.00on par
NSÍ II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KÍ II ↓

NSÍ II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

KÍ II or draw
67%
KÍ II or NSÍ II
79%
Draw or NSÍ II
54%

Winning margin

KÍ II wins by 2+
26%
NSÍ II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

KÍ II 1+ goals
88%
KÍ II 2+ goals
62%
KÍ II 3+ goals
35%
NSÍ II 1+ goals
83%
NSÍ II 2+ goals
53%
NSÍ II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

KÍ II (draw refunded)
58%
NSÍ II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KÍ II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

NSÍ II away — creates 1.94, concedes 2.18 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KÍ II attack 2.02 + NSÍ II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.10

NSÍ II attack 1.94 + KÍ II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

KÍ II scores more
46%
level
21%
NSÍ II scores more
33%

KÍ II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "KÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KÍ II 3 – 0 NSÍ II

KÍ II beat NSÍ II 3-0 in 1. Deild on June 13, 2025.

The match was played at Við Djúpumýrar in Klaksvík, Borðoy.