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KÍ II vs EB / Streymur II — 1. Deild 2019

KÍ II
KÍ II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
EB / Streymur II
EB / Streymur II
5/26/20251. Deild1. Deild · Round 11Við Djúpumýrar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

KÍ II67%
×Draw17%
EB / Streymur II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KÍ II
2.76
EB / Streymur II
1.32

KÍ II creates 109% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 63 away

creates per match

KÍ II
2.02
EB / Streymur II
1.05

allows per match

KÍ II
1.59
EB / Streymur II
3.51

finishing

KÍ II+0.00on par
EB / Streymur II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KÍ II ↓

EB / Streymur II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

KÍ II or draw
84%
KÍ II or EB / Streymur II
83%
Draw or EB / Streymur II
33%

Winning margin

KÍ II wins by 2+
46%
EB / Streymur II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

KÍ II 1+ goals
94%
KÍ II 2+ goals
76%
KÍ II 3+ goals
51%
EB / Streymur II 1+ goals
73%
EB / Streymur II 2+ goals
38%
EB / Streymur II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

KÍ II (draw refunded)
80%
EB / Streymur II (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KÍ II at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.59 · 95 matches

EB / Streymur II away — creates 1.05, concedes 3.51 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KÍ II attack 2.02 + EB / Streymur II defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.76

EB / Streymur II attack 1.05 + KÍ II defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

KÍ II scores more
67%
level
17%
EB / Streymur II scores more
16%

KÍ II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "KÍ II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: KÍ II 2–0 EB / Streymur II

KÍ II beat EB / Streymur II 2-0 in 1. Deild on May 26, 2025.

The match was played at Við Djúpumýrar in Klaksvík, Borðoy.