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Khust City vs VAST — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Khust City
Khust City
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
VAST
VAST
10/14/2022Druha Liga - Group ADruha Liga - Group A · Round 7Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khust City79%
×Draw13%
VAST8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
2.81
VAST
0.78

Khust City creates 260% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

creates per match

Khust City
2.50
VAST
0.93

allows per match

Khust City
0.63
VAST
3.13

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
VAST+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

VAST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
92%
Khust City or VAST
87%
Draw or VAST
21%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
58%
VAST wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
94%
Khust City 2+ goals
76%
Khust City 3+ goals
52%
VAST 1+ goals
54%
VAST 2+ goals
18%
VAST 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
91%
VAST (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

VAST away — creates 0.93, concedes 3.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 2.50 + VAST defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.81

VAST attack 0.93 + Khust City defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Khust City scores more
79%
level
13%
VAST scores more
8%

Khust City at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group A: Khust City 5–1 VAST

Khust City beat VAST 5-1 in Druha Liga - Group A on October 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.