Khust City 4–0 Real Pharm: Result & Stats

Khust City

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Real Pharm

V. Lutsiv 60'

N. Ladyka 46' (OG)

I. Stankovych 42'

V. Merdeev 33'

5/6/2023

Druha Liga - Group A · Round 15Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Khust City76%

×Draw16%

Real Pharm9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Khust CityExpected goals in this matchReal Pharm

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

0.72

Khust City

2.48

Real Pharm

0.72

Khust City creates 244% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 46 away

2.50

creates per match

0.80

0.63

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Khust City

2.50

Real Pharm

0.80

allows per match

Khust City

0.63

Real Pharm

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par

Real Pharm+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Real Pharm →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Khust City or draw

91%

Khust City or Real Pharm

84%

Draw or Real Pharm

24%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+

53%

Real Pharm wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals

92%

Khust City 2+ goals

70%

Khust City 3+ goals

44%

Real Pharm 1+ goals

51%

Real Pharm 2+ goals

16%

Real Pharm 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)

89%

Real Pharm (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

Real Pharm away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 2.50 + Real Pharm defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.48

Real Pharm attack 0.80 + Khust City defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Khust City scores more

76%

level

16%

Real Pharm scores more

9%

Khust City at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

V. Merdeev

42'

I. Stankovych

46'

M. Popov← V. Tymoshevskyi

46'

Y. Ratushnyak← M. Lykhovydov

46'

N. LadykaOwn goal

52'

M. Marchenko← O. Kolesnykov

55'

V. Granchar← O. Faber

59'

M. Flyashko← V. Borysenko

60'

V. Lutsiv

67'

N. Shcherbak← H. Dmytriev

71'

I. Levchenko← A. Belimenko

71'

R. Pylyp← V. Merdeev

82'

I. Bodnaruk← I. Stankovych

82'

K. Kolchin← I. Tykhnenko

Khust

Real

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Merdeev

⚽

▼

Stankovyc

Prykhodko

▼

Borysenko

Manager: V. Tsytkin

59'▲M. Flyashko←▼V. Borysenko

71'▲I. Levchenko←▼A. Belimenko

71'▲R. Pylyp←▼V. Merdeev

82'▲I. Bodnaruk←▼I. Stankovych

82'▲K. Kolchin←▼I. Tykhnenko

Khust City substitutes

FlyashkoLevchenkoPylypBodnarukKolchin

Manager: A. Parkhomenko

46'▲M. Popov←▼V. Tymoshevskyi

46'▲Y. Ratushnyak←▼M. Lykhovydov

52'▲M. Marchenko←▼O. Kolesnykov

55'▲V. Granchar←▼O. Faber

67'▲N. Shcherbak←▼H. Dmytriev

Real Pharm substitutes

PopovRatushnyakMarchenkoGrancharShcherbak

Druha Liga - Group A: Khust City 4–0 Real Pharm

Khust City beat Real Pharm 4-0 in Druha Liga - Group A on May 6, 2023.

Goals: V. Merdeev (33'), I. Stankovych (42'), N. Ladyka (46' o.g.), V. Lutsiv (60').

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.

Khust City vs Real Pharm — Druha Liga - Group A 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Druha Liga - Group A: Khust City 4–0 Real Pharm