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Khust City vs Prykarpattia — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Prykarpattia
Prykarpattia
10/28/2023Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 14Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City37%
×Draw25%
Prykarpattia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.43
Prykarpattia
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 91 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Prykarpattia
1.11

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Prykarpattia
1.56

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Prykarpattia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Prykarpattia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
62%
Khust City or Prykarpattia
75%
Draw or Prykarpattia
63%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
17%
Prykarpattia wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
76%
Khust City 2+ goals
42%
Khust City 3+ goals
17%
Prykarpattia 1+ goals
77%
Prykarpattia 2+ goals
43%
Prykarpattia 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
49%
Prykarpattia (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Prykarpattia away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.56 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Prykarpattia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.43

Prykarpattia attack 1.11 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Khust City scores more
37%
level
25%
Prykarpattia scores more
38%

Prykarpattia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Prykarpattia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khust City vs Prykarpattia

Prykarpattia beat Khust City 2-1 in Persha Liga on October 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.