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Khust City vs Metal Kharkiv — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
CANC
12:00
Metal Kharkiv
Metal Kharkiv
9/5/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 5Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City28%
×Draw25%
Metal Kharkiv47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.18
Metal Kharkiv
1.58

Metal Kharkiv creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 50 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Metal Kharkiv
1.34

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Metal Kharkiv
1.06

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Metal Kharkiv+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Metal Kharkiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
53%
Khust City or Metal Kharkiv
75%
Draw or Metal Kharkiv
72%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
12%
Metal Kharkiv wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
69%
Khust City 2+ goals
33%
Khust City 3+ goals
12%
Metal Kharkiv 1+ goals
79%
Metal Kharkiv 2+ goals
47%
Metal Kharkiv 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
38%
Metal Kharkiv (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Metal Kharkiv away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.06 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Metal Kharkiv defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Metal Kharkiv attack 1.34 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khust City scores more
28%
level
25%
Metal Kharkiv scores more
47%

Metal Kharkiv at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Metal Kharkiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khust City vs Metal Kharkiv — Match Preview

Khust City face Metal Kharkiv on September 5, 2024 in this Persha Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Khust City host Metal Kharkiv at Stadion Karpaty.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.