Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Khust City vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
CANC
00:00
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
10/13/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City27%
×Draw26%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.45

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 36 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1.08

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0.81

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
54%
Khust City or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
74%
Draw or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
73%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
10%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
65%
Khust City 2+ goals
28%
Khust City 3+ goals
9%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1+ goals
77%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2+ goals
42%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
37%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Epitsentr Dunayivtsi defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.05

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.08 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khust City scores more
27%
level
26%
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi scores more
46%

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Khust City face Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (Persha Liga)

Persha Liga returns with Khust City hosting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. Match starts October 13, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.