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Khust City vs Chernihiv — Persha Liga 2019

Khust City
Khust City
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Chernihiv
Chernihiv
5/11/2024Persha LigaPersha Liga · Relegation Round - 8Stadion Karpaty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Khust City39%
×Draw25%
Chernihiv36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khust City
1.46
Chernihiv
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 41 away

creates per match

Khust City
1.29
Chernihiv
1.00

allows per match

Khust City
1.82
Chernihiv
1.63

finishing

Khust City+0.00on par
Chernihiv+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khust City ↓

Chernihiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Khust City or draw
64%
Khust City or Chernihiv
75%
Draw or Chernihiv
61%

Winning margin

Khust City wins by 2+
18%
Chernihiv wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Khust City 1+ goals
77%
Khust City 2+ goals
43%
Khust City 3+ goals
18%
Chernihiv 1+ goals
76%
Chernihiv 2+ goals
41%
Chernihiv 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Khust City (draw refunded)
51%
Chernihiv (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khust City at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Chernihiv away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.63 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khust City attack 1.29 + Chernihiv defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Chernihiv attack 1.00 + Khust City defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khust City scores more
39%
level
25%
Chernihiv scores more
36%

Khust City at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Khust City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khust City vs Chernihiv

Chernihiv beat Khust City 4-2 in Persha Liga on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Karpaty in Khust.