Khujand 1–0 Istiqlol: Result & Stats

Khujand

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Istiqlol

P. Komolafe 11'

6/18/2025

Vysshaya Liga · Round 12Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Khujand28%

×Draw26%

Istiqlol46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KhujandExpected goals in this matchIstiqlol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.48

Khujand

1.11

Istiqlol

1.48

Istiqlol creates 33% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 30 away

1.63

creates per match

2.10

0.86

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

Khujand

1.63

Istiqlol

2.10

allows per match

Khujand

0.86

Istiqlol

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Istiqlol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Khujand or draw

54%

Khujand or Istiqlol

74%

Draw or Istiqlol

72%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+

11%

Istiqlol wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals

67%

Khujand 2+ goals

30%

Khujand 3+ goals

10%

Istiqlol 1+ goals

77%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

43%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)

38%

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.86 · 35 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.63 + Istiqlol defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.11

Istiqlol attack 2.10 + Khujand defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khujand scores more

28%

level

26%

Istiqlol scores more

46%

Istiqlol at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

P. Komolafe

Khujand

Istiqlol

Manager: F. Marofiev

Manager: I. Cherevchenko

Match Recap: Khujand vs Istiqlol

Khujand beat Istiqlol 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 18, 2025.

Goals: P. Komolafe (11').

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti in Khujand.

Khujand vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Khujand vs Istiqlol