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Khujand vs Dordoi Bishkek — AFC Cup 2018

Khujand
Khujand
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Dordoi Bishkek
Dordoi Bishkek
4/17/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti (Khujand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Khujand40%
×Draw25%
Dordoi Bishkek35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.45
Dordoi Bishkek
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Khujand
0.89
Dordoi Bishkek
1.33

allows per match

Khujand
1.33
Dordoi Bishkek
2.00

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Dordoi Bishkek+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Dordoi Bishkek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
65%
Khujand or Dordoi Bishkek
75%
Draw or Dordoi Bishkek
60%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
19%
Dordoi Bishkek wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
77%
Khujand 2+ goals
42%
Khujand 3+ goals
18%
Dordoi Bishkek 1+ goals
74%
Dordoi Bishkek 2+ goals
38%
Dordoi Bishkek 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
54%
Dordoi Bishkek (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Dordoi Bishkek away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 0.89 + Dordoi Bishkek defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Dordoi Bishkek attack 1.33 + Khujand defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Khujand scores more
40%
level
25%
Dordoi Bishkek scores more
35%

Khujand at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khujand vs Dordoi Bishkek

Khujand beat Dordoi Bishkek 3-1 in AFC Cup on April 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti (Khujand).