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Khujand vs Barki Tajik — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khujand
Khujand
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barki Tajik
Barki Tajik
D. Ergashev 75'
A. Daliev 13' (pen)
4/25/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 11Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Khujand46%
×Draw26%
Barki Tajik27%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.46
Barki Tajik
1.06

Khujand creates 38% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

creates per match

Khujand
1.48
Barki Tajik
1.24

allows per match

Khujand
0.88
Barki Tajik
1.44

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Barki Tajik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Barki Tajik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
73%
Khujand or Barki Tajik
74%
Draw or Barki Tajik
54%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
23%
Barki Tajik wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
77%
Khujand 2+ goals
43%
Khujand 3+ goals
18%
Barki Tajik 1+ goals
65%
Barki Tajik 2+ goals
29%
Barki Tajik 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
63%
Barki Tajik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

Barki Tajik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 1.48 + Barki Tajik defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Barki Tajik attack 1.24 + Khujand defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khujand scores more
46%
level
26%
Barki Tajik scores more
27%

Khujand at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
A. DalievPenalty
75'
D. Ergashev
90+11'
M. Madaminov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khujand vs Barki Tajik

Khujand and Barki Tajik drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 25, 2025.

Goals: A. Daliev (13' pen), D. Ergashev (75').

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Khujand.