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Khujand vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Khujand
Khujand
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
4/30/2019AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti (Khujand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khujand36%
×Draw25%
Altyn Asyr39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.38
Altyn Asyr
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 21 away

creates per match

Khujand
0.89
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Khujand
1.33
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
61%
Khujand or Altyn Asyr
75%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
64%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
16%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
75%
Khujand 2+ goals
40%
Khujand 3+ goals
16%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
77%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
42%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
48%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 0.89 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.38

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Khujand defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Khujand scores more
36%
level
25%
Altyn Asyr scores more
39%

Altyn Asyr at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Khujand 0–0 Altyn Asyr

Khujand and Altyn Asyr drew 0-0 in AFC Cup on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti (Khujand).