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Khujand vs Alay — AFC Cup 2018

Khujand
Khujand
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Alay
Alay
5/20/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Khujand64%
×Draw22%
Alay13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.80
Alay
0.67

Khujand creates 169% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Khujand
0.89
Alay
0.00

allows per match

Khujand
1.33
Alay
2.71

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Alay+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Alay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
87%
Khujand or Alay
78%
Draw or Alay
36%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
38%
Alay wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
83%
Khujand 2+ goals
54%
Khujand 3+ goals
27%
Alay 1+ goals
49%
Alay 2+ goals
15%
Alay 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
83%
Alay (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Alay away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 0.89 + Alay defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.80

Alay attack 0.00 + Khujand defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Khujand scores more
64%
level
22%
Alay scores more
13%

Khujand at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Khujand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Khujand 2–0 Alay

Khujand beat Alay 2-0 in AFC Cup on May 20, 2021.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.