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Khujand vs Ahal — AFC Cup 2018

Khujand
Khujand
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ahal
Ahal
2/20/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Play-offs RoundStadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti (Khujand)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Khujand27%
×Draw27%
Ahal47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khujand
1.02
Ahal
1.44

Ahal creates 41% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Khujand
0.89
Ahal
1.54

allows per match

Khujand
1.33
Ahal
1.15

finishing

Khujand+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khujand ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Khujand or draw
53%
Khujand or Ahal
73%
Draw or Ahal
73%

Winning margin

Khujand wins by 2+
10%
Ahal wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Khujand 1+ goals
64%
Khujand 2+ goals
27%
Khujand 3+ goals
8%
Ahal 1+ goals
76%
Ahal 2+ goals
42%
Ahal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Khujand (draw refunded)
36%
Ahal (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khujand at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khujand attack 0.89 + Ahal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.02

Ahal attack 1.54 + Khujand defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khujand scores more
27%
level
27%
Ahal scores more
47%

Ahal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ahal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khujand vs Ahal

Ahal beat Khujand 2-0 in AFC Cup on February 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion 20-letie Nezavisimosti (Khujand).