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Khovd vs Khangarid — Premier League 2020

Khovd
Khovd
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Khangarid
Khangarid
6/15/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Football Centre MFF

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Khovd34%
×Draw19%
Khangarid47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khovd
2.13
Khangarid
2.51

Khangarid creates 18% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 81 away

creates per match

Khovd
2.41
Khangarid
2.26

allows per match

Khovd
2.76
Khangarid
1.85

finishing

Khovd+0.00on par
Khangarid+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khovd ↓

Khangarid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Khovd or draw
53%
Khovd or Khangarid
81%
Draw or Khangarid
66%

Winning margin

Khovd wins by 2+
18%
Khangarid wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Khovd 1+ goals
88%
Khovd 2+ goals
63%
Khovd 3+ goals
35%
Khangarid 1+ goals
92%
Khangarid 2+ goals
71%
Khangarid 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Khovd (draw refunded)
42%
Khangarid (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khovd at home — creates 2.41, concedes 2.76 · 63 matches

Khangarid away — creates 2.26, concedes 1.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khovd attack 2.41 + Khangarid defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.13

Khangarid attack 2.26 + Khovd defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Khovd scores more
34%
level
19%
Khangarid scores more
47%

Khangarid at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Khangarid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Khovd 2–5 Khangarid

Khangarid beat Khovd 5-2 in Premier League on June 15, 2025.

The match was played at Football Centre MFF in Ulan Bator (Ulaanbaatar).